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Arnold Schwarzenegger, the front-running Republican candidate for California governor, consolidated his support among voters who participated last week in an Internet poll on Tuesday's statewide recall election. The findings, released Oct. 4, were consistent with two earlier surveys conducted by university researchers and Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park-based research firm. The Internet survey was the first poll nationwide to identify Schwarzenegger as the top candidate to replace Gov. Gray Davis. The poll indicated that approximately 59 percent of voters supported the recall -- down from 61 percent two weeks ago. However, support for Schwarzenegger increased slightly to 43 percent -- up 3 percent from earlier poll results released Sept. 8 and Sept. 21. Thirty percent of participants in the third survey said they would support Democratic candidate Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante -- a level consistent with earlier results. Meanwhile, 94 percent of Republicans favored removing Davis from office. In contrast, Democrats increasingly opposed the recall, with a "no on recall" vote jumping to 68 percent from 58 percent in the first survey. Communication Professor Shanto Iyengar and political science Professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina sponsored the poll to learn more about the logic behind voters' decision-making leading up to the special election. Brady and Fiorina also are senior fellows at the Hoover Institution. Unlike conventional polls, which restrict respondents' choices to the top candidates and give them the option of selecting "undecided" as a response, the online surveys gave participants the actual ballot that included the question about recalling Davis and listed the 135 replacement candidates. This scenario was closer to the actual situation the voters faced, the poll sponsors said. "Our survey methodology forces the undecideds to choose, and it appears that all along the undecideds have been disproportionately supportive of the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger," Fiorina said before the vote Tuesday. In the third survey, revelations last week about Schwarzenegger's alleged sexual harassment of women did not appear to hurt his candidacy, poll results revealed. About 38 percent of female voters supported Schwarzenegger, while 34 percent backed Bustamante. According to Iyengar, interviews collected following newspaper reports concerning Schwarzenegger's alleged misconduct toward women did not show a decrease in support for the GOP candidate. "Even though we only have a limited number of recent interviews, we're not seeing any signs of greater support for 'no' on recall or weakened enthusiasm for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the aftermath of the Los Angeles Times story detailing the sexual harassment allegations," he said before the election. The findings were based on interviews conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 4 with likely voters in California. Knowledge Networks conducted the survey in collaboration with the Stanford researchers and the Hoover Institution.
Survey methodology Knowledge Networks surveyed a representative sample of 956 registered voters in California, 702 of whom were determined to be likely voters. According to Mike Dennis, a vice president at Knowledge Networks, the polls were conducted with a random sample of adults in California who are members of a national "web-enabled panel" created and maintained by the company that is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of household telephone numbers. Individuals in selected households were then asked by telephone to participate in the research panel. Those who agreed to participate were sent an Internet appliance and received an Internet service connection provided by Knowledge Networks. Some people who already had computers and Internet service were also permitted to participate using their own equipment, Dennis said. Panelists received personalized login information for accessing surveys online, and then were sent e-mails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research. For the recall surveys, Knowledge Networks randomly selected adult panelists in California.
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Stanford Report, October 8, 2003
