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July 28, 1999


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No green cheese and maybe no water
Eshleman, Parks question existence of water on the moon

BY DAVID F. SALISBURY

On July 31, NASA intends to crash the Lunar Prospector spacecraft into a small crater near the moon's south pole. The 354-pound spacecraft will be traveling at about 3,800 miles per hour when it plows into the lunar surface. The purpose for such a violent end to the $63-million mission is to find out whether there is any water ice hidden in the bottom of the crater, which is shrouded in perpetual shadow.

But two Stanford researchers predict that, rather than ice, the spacecraft is more likely to hit deposits of "hydrous" lunar minerals that contain the constituents of water chemically bound into their crystal structure. Von R. Eshleman, professor emeritus of electrical engineering, and George A. Parks, professor emeritus of geological and environmental sciences, argue that water ice left on the moon from past cometary impacts has most likely combined chemically with the water-free powdered rock that covers most of the lunar surface. They outlined their reasoning in a letter that was published in the July 23 issue of the journal Science.


The small white circle superimposed on the radar map of the moon's south polar region outlines the crater where NASA controllers intend to crash the Lunar Prospector spacecraft on July 31.

Courtesy U. of Texas, Austin


NASA scientists and other advocates for establishing a permanent base on the moon are eager to find a source of accessible water because it could provide water, oxygen and rocket fuel for human colonists. Water ice would be ideal for this purpose. But, if Eshleman and Parks are right, "the constituents of water are there, but obtaining water would require large amounts of energy and so would be much harder and more expensive," says Eshleman, who has been involved with radioscience investigations of the moon and planets since the 1950s.

When Prospector crashes on the moon, the Hubble space telescope, along with a number of its space and Earth-based cousins, will be focused on the site. They will be equipped with sensitive instruments that can determine the composition of the plume of lunar material that the Prospector kicks up. Mission scientists predict that this plume could contain as much as 40 pounds of water, which sunlight should break down into hydrogen and hydroxyl ions. If the cloud contains significant amounts of hydroxyl ions, mission scientists argue that it will verify their assertion that large amounts of water ice exist in the region, something that they have predicted based on indirect evidence collected by the spacecraft's instruments.

The two Stanford scientists argue that this test, however dramatic, will not be definitive. If their theory is correct, they consider it unlikely that the spacecraft will kick up significant signs of water. But it is not impossible that the energy from the impact might cause some of the particles of hydrous rock to chemically dissociate, producing hydrogen and hydroxyl ions and reconstituting some of the water that it has held in chemical bondage, perhaps for billions of years.

The idea that the polar craters on the moon and the planet Mercury may contain water ice dates back to the early 1960s. Scientists recognized that the bottoms of some of these craters must be shrouded in perpetual shadow, shielded from sunlight by their uplifted rims. These shaded areas should have a constant temperature of around 170 degrees Celsius below zero, making them the coldest places on their respective worlds. As a result, each time Mercury or the moon was hit by a water-bearing comet, the water molecules it deposited would either end up in one of these "cold sinks" or escape into space.

In fact, radar observations of Mercury appear to have found water ice in some of its polar craters. At least, the radar reflections closely resemble those produced by ice­covered objects, like several outer planet satellites. On the moon itself, however, the evidence has been more ambiguous.

The strongest evidence in favor of the existence of ice on the moon is measurements taken with an instrument called a neutron spectrometer flown aboard the Prospector. This instrument cannot detect water ice directly, but has measured excess levels of hydrogen in the lunar polar regions.

Radar images taken of the lunar poles, however, have not found the characteristic signature of ice found on Mercury or other ice-covered objects in the solar system. So proponents have explained the radar returns as coming from "stealthy ice," ice that is either buried below a layer of lunar dust or mixed with lunar material to some depth.

Eshleman and Parks consider this highly unlikely, pointing out that the hydrogen detected by Prospector is to be expected if all the ice has combined with surface minerals. In the past, scientists thinking about this situation have simply assumed that water molecules freezing out would clump together to form ice. They haven't given any thought to the chemical nature of the material the ice would be forming on or the nature of the chemical interactions that might occur.

The Stanford researchers point out that the moon rocks brought back to Earth during the Apollo program indicate that the material covering the lunar surface is anhydrous, that is, it doesn't contain any water at all. Due to continual micrometeorite bombardment, this material has been ground up into a fine powder. "The surface of these particles is covered with broken bonds that will grab hold of any water molecules that come along," says Eshleman. Although no samples were returned from the lunar poles, there is no reason for the material there to be basically different from that which covers the rest of the moon, he argues.

According to Eshleman, this anhydrous lunar material contains two of the same ingredients as Portland cement and should have similar properties. While the lunar material is naturally anhydrous, Portland cement is made from common earth materials that are heated to drive out all the water.

"What happens when you put an ice cube on a layer of Portland cement in a vacuum and at a very low temperature?" Eshleman asks. "We predict that the ice will eventually disappear as it is absorbed by the cement."

Eshleman and Parks predict that the lunar material should react in a similar fashion. What is more, they calculate that this is a one­way process: Once water is incorporated into the lunar minerals, the resulting material would be extremely stable.

Furthermore, the radar reflection of the resulting hydrous material should be nearly identical to that of the anhydrous material, and so can explain the radar data from the poles without having to bury or mix the ice as proposed by the Prospector team, the Stanford scientists say.

The response of the Prospector mission scientists -- W. C. Feldman and colleagues from Los Alamos National Laboratory, S. Maurice from the Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees in Toulouse, France, and Alan Binder from the Lunar Research Institute in Gilroy, Calif. -- is that Eshleman and Parks' suggestions "are worthy of more extended quantitative analysis." The Prospector researchers defend their position by asserting that the hydroxyl ions that they measure must be coming from something. The levels that they have detected are extremely high and are concentrated in two southern polar craters that are in continuous shadow, making water ice a likely source. They also say that the amount of water ice that they expect to find is too small to detect by radar unless it takes the form of pure ice.

So, regardless of what happens when Prospector crashes, it is unlikely to resolve the question of whether there are potentially valuable caches of water ice hidden in perpetual shadow near the moon's pole. SR