Nuclear combat
entirely possible, Abrams warns in NEJM paper
BY MITCH LESLIE
Nuclear war is a terror
most of us thought we could safely forget. But a recent
article co-authored by Dr. Herbert Abrams, emeritus
professor of radiology, takes aim at that complacency.
While the threat of an
intentional nuclear war between the superpowers has all
but disappeared, the chance of an accidental nuclear
attack has grown, Abrams and eight other U.S. scientists
warn in the April 30 New England Journal of Medicine.
The article's purpose
"is to alert physicians and the public that
the collapse of the Soviet Union doesn't mean that the
possibility of a nuclear apocalypse has
disappeared," said Abrams, a member-in-residence at
Stanford University's Center for International Security
and Arms Control.
He and his co-authors urge
doctors to push for policy changes that would prevent a
nuclear catastrophe.
"Physicians have
special insight into the widespread hazards that would
follow such a nuclear event and the difficulty of
mounting a credible medical response if health facilities
and health professionals are destroyed," Abrams said
in an interview last week. "This kind of article
puts them on notice that [nuclear attack] remains an
important possibility."
The authors cite worrisome
vestiges of Cold War hostility that could contribute to
an inadvertent attack. For instance, they say, the United
States and Russia still keep thousands of nuclear weapons
on high-alert status, primed for launch within minutes.
Moreover, both countries are still committed to a policy
of "launch on warning" firing their own
missiles once an attack is detected, even before any of
the opponent's missiles arrive. This strategy is
dangerous, the authors say, because it leaves only a few
minutes to verify a warning before leaders must decide
whether to retaliate.
Turmoil in Russia adds to
the authors' concern. Russia's decaying technology and
deteriorating command and warning systems increase the
chance of a disastrous error, they note. Also worrisome
is the quality of Russia's nuclear soldiers. Morale is
drooping as a result of irregular pay and scarcity of
housing and food, while budget cuts have diminished
training time for commanders, the authors observe.
To cap their argument,
Abrams and his colleagues sketch a grim scenario of the
consequences of an accidental attack, in which a single
Russian Delta-IV submarine fires its 16 missiles at eight
large American cities. Around 7 million people die
instantly from the blast and fireball; radiation kills
millions more, and casualties overwhelm medical
facilities. This horrific scenario is "modest,"
the authors contend; far worse scenarios, up to
full-scale nuclear war, are possible, they say.
To avert such a
catastrophe, they suggest approaching the problem in the
same way doctors approach the threat of serious disease.
"In our book, it's analogous to going after smallpox
or any massive threat to human health," Abrams said.
"You try prevention first."
Prevention, in this
context, means a comprehensive nuclear test ban followed
by eventual elimination of all nuclear weapons, according
to Abrams and his colleagues. As a first step, the group
urges the United States and Russia to remove all of their
weapons from alert status. That would eliminate the
possibility of a false alarm triggering an attack, they
say.
"As long as the
United States and the other nuclear powers possess large
arsenals, countries like India, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran
will pursue the nuclear option, placing the United States
in jeopardy," Abrams observed. "The United
States and Russia must take the lead in developing a
treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons with rapid
decommissioning over the next few decades much like
the treaty on chemical and biological warfare."
Abrams has long campaigned
to educate the public on the medical implications of
nuclear war. He served as co-chair of Physicians for
Social Responsibility and was founding vice-president of
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear
War, which received the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.
He said he is certain that
efforts to eliminate nuclear arms will eventually pay
off. "It may seem quixotic, but so was the end of
the Soviet Union, and so was the end of apartheid without
bloodshed," he said. SR
Mitch Leslie is a
graduate-level science writing intern with the Medical
Center Office of Communications/News Bureau.
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